Back + lay
Matched-betting calculator
Calculate the exchange lay stake, liability and both settlement branches for a cash qualifying bet or an SNR free bet. Figures update as you type.
Bet details
Balanced position
For a qualifying bet, the calculator balances the bookmaker profit against the exchange liability while allowing for commission. For an SNR free bet, the free stake is not returned, so only back odds minus one contributes to the bookmaker payout.
- Use the prices actually available when you place the bets.
- Confirm the exchange bet is fully matched; unmatched money is not cover.
- Different free-bet mechanics need different maths. This calculator covers cash qualifiers and standard stake-not-returned free bets.
New to the terms? Read the definitive matched-betting guide.
Price + probability
Value-betting calculator
Compare a sportsbook price with your estimated fair odds. The result is expected value—not the chance that this particular bet will win.
Price assumptions
Price reading
The calculator assumes the fair odds are a reliable, margin-free estimate. If the reference is stale, mismatched or still contains bookmaker margin, the displayed edge can be fiction. Precision in the output does not remove uncertainty in the input.
Read how ProfitPanda treats sharp prices, margin and closing line value in the definitive value-betting guide and methodology.
Variance laboratory
Monte Carlo bankroll simulator
Run thousands of independent seasons using one constant price and estimated probability. The chart shows how widely correct decisions can diverge before the long-run average has time to emerge.
Ready. Results change on every run.
Model assumptions: independent bets, constant odds and probability, flat stake, immediate settlement and no commission, limits, rejected bets or price movement. “Could not fund next stake” means the simulated bankroll fell below the chosen flat stake before the run ended. This is an educational variance model, not a forecast.
Calculator questions
How is the matched-betting lay stake calculated?
For a cash qualifying bet, the equal-profit lay stake is back stake × back odds ÷ (lay odds − commission). For an SNR free bet, use free-bet stake × (back odds − 1) ÷ (lay odds − commission).
Why can the two matched-betting results differ by a penny?
Exchange stakes are placed to the nearest penny. The exact balancing stake often contains more decimal places, so rounding can leave a small difference between settlement branches.
Does positive expected value mean the next bet will win?
No. Expected value is an average across repeated comparable bets. Any individual bet can lose the full stake, and losing runs remain possible even when the probability estimate is correct.
Where should estimated fair odds come from?
They need to come from a reliable, current, margin-free probability estimate. ProfitPanda uses sharper reference markets and cross-checks sources, but every reference can still be stale or mismatched.
What does a Monte Carlo simulation prove?
It proves nothing about future results. It samples many random paths under the assumptions entered, helping you see the range of outcomes those assumptions can produce.
Why does the simulator change every time?
Each run generates a new set of random outcomes. The central range should become broadly stable with enough paths, while individual sample paths continue to vary.
Does the simulator include bookmaker limits or changing edges?
No. It deliberately uses a simple constant-edge model. Real prices move, stakes can be limited, bets can be rejected and probability estimates can be wrong, so live results may be materially worse or better.