Stake rounding enabled. Net returns across outcomes differ slightly to keep stakes rounded to clean integers.
Create a free ProfitPanda account to log your bets directly from calculators, track your real performance against the closing line, and bank more profit.
Back stake: the amount placed with the bookmaker. Enter decimal odds for the same selection at the bookmaker and exchange.
Commission: your exchange’s rate. Liability: the balance needed to cover your lay bet.
Staking modes: Standard balances both outcomes equally. Underlay aims for £0 loss if the bookmaker back bet wins. Overlay aims for £0 loss if the exchange lay bet wins.
Pre-match setup: balances your back and lay bets so your qualifying loss is minimal.
2-0 Up lock-in: when your team goes 2 goals ahead, the bookmaker pays out in full. Enter the current in-play exchange back odds to calculate the exact stake to back the team, balancing your estimated profit across results.
EV = stake × (offered odds ÷ fair odds − 1).
Your fair odds are an estimate. EV is the modelled average across repeated bets, not this bet’s payout. Fees and offer conditions are excluded.
A mathematical stake based on your estimated win probability and chosen Kelly fraction. A zero stake means no positive Kelly allocation.
Splits a budget or locks leg 1 across 2-way or 3-way mutually exclusive outcomes covering every result.
Enable rounding (nearest £1 or £5) to place natural-looking stakes and protect accounts from bookmaker restrictions.
Sharp bookmakers and exchanges include a profit margin (vig/overround). This calculator strips the overround to find the true mathematical probability and fair odds.
Use the "Send to +EV" or "Send to Kelly" buttons to quickly evaluate whether a recreational bookmaker's price offers positive expected value.
Decimal: 2.50 · Fractional: 3/2 · American: +150 · Probability: 40%.
Implied probability is the break-even win rate in the price, including bookmaker margin.
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