Skip to content

Expected Value (+EV) Calculator

Compare offered prices with estimated fair odds to calculate your true betting edge, expected value, and long-term expected returns.

Expected value

What is expected value in sports betting?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet when making the same wager at the same odds repeatedly. A bet with positive expected value (+EV) has higher offered odds than the true mathematical probability dictates, giving the bettor a statistical edge over the house.

The formula: EV = Stake × (Offered Odds / Fair Odds - 1)

Edge percentage: Edge = (Offered Odds / Fair Odds - 1) × 100%

Worked example

+EV Calculation

You find an offered price of 2.30 on a football team at a retail bookmaker, while the sharp closing line fair price on the exchange is 2.10.

For a £50 stake: the calculated edge is +9.52%, giving an expected value of +£4.76 per bet. Over a sample of 250 similar bets, the expected profit is £1,190.

Value Finder Pro Expected Value Guide Kelly Criterion Calculator Arbitrage Calculator

Track your profit, CLV & ROI automatically in one tap — Start free.

Create a free ProfitPanda account to log your bets directly from calculators, track your real performance against the closing line, and bank more profit.

Create Free Account → Already a member? Log In

Calculator help

Matched betting

Back stake: the amount placed with the bookmaker. Enter decimal odds for the same selection at the bookmaker and exchange.

Commission: your exchange’s rate. Liability: the balance needed to cover your lay bet.

Staking modes: Standard balances both outcomes equally. Underlay aims for £0 loss if the bookmaker back bet wins. Overlay aims for £0 loss if the exchange lay bet wins.

Read the matched betting guide ↗