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Arbitrage·2 min read

Arbitrage basics

An arb uses different bookies' odds to cover every result for a profit. The maths only works if you can get all the bets on at the right stakes and prices, with matching settlement rules.

Cover every result

A football match-winner market has home, draw and away. Backing both teams still leaves the draw uncovered. For a two-outcome market, you need both outcomes covered.

A two-outcome example

Say a market has only two possible results, A and B, and you can get 2.10 on each. With no fees and both bets standing, £50 on each costs £100. Either winner returns £105, leaving £5 profit.

The quick maths check is sum of (1 ÷ odds) across all outcomes < 1. Here, 1 ÷ 2.10 + 1 ÷ 2.10 = 0.95238. When the odds differ, the stakes usually need to differ too: split them in proportion to 1 ÷ odds to balance the returns.

Why the maths isn't the whole job

  • One bookie might reject or reduce your stake after you've placed the other bet.
  • The odds might move before you finish.
  • The sites might have different retirement, abandonment, extra-time or void rules.
  • A restriction or lack of funds might stop you placing the remaining bets.

Until every side is accepted, you may have an uncovered bet. Even then, different settlement rules can change the result. An arb isn't automatically guaranteed money.

One side already placed?

Keep its actual odds and stake. Recalculate using the remaining prices and stake limits. Check every outcome after rounding the stakes; don't round them just to make them look neat.

18 September 2026: ProfitPanda arb alerts aren't available to members. Next: Arbitrage checks and availability.