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Value betting·2 min read

Variance and losing runs

Even good bets lose. Variance is the ups and downs between what you expect to make and what actually happens.

Five losses in a row

With five independent bets that each have a 50% chance, the chance of losing all five is 0.5 to the fifth power: 3.125%. Bet often enough and there are plenty of chances for a losing run. Bets on the same match may not be independent.

Higher odds and lower win rates usually mean bigger swings. But a loss isn't always bad luck—your estimated edge could also be wrong. No magic number of bets guarantees profit.

What to check after a bad run

  1. Keep the losses in your tracker.
  2. Check you got the intended odds and used the right stakes.
  3. Look for wrong markets, duplicate bets or several bets riding on the same result.
  4. Review the whole period, including costs.
  5. Pause if you've hit the loss or spending limit you set.

Don't raise stakes to win it back. A winning run isn't a reason to assume your edge has suddenly improved either.

Look beyond the last result

Keep your odds and results. If you have a matching closing price, record that too. Regularly beating it can help you assess your prices, but it isn't cash profit or a guarantee of future wins.

Next: Bankroll and staking and Understanding performance.