Skip to content
Browse guides
← All guides
Matched bettingMatched betting basicsBack and lay bettingExchanges and liabilityComplete your first offerUnderstanding 2Up alerts
Value bettingValue betting basicsExpected value and fair oddsProbability and priceVariance and losing runsBankroll and stakingReading a value alert
ArbitrageArbitrage basicsArbitrage checks and availabilityComparing betting prices
Accounts and limitsAccount health and restrictionsLimits, gubbings and account closuresExchanges and sportsbook limitsGood account practice
Using ProfitPandaHow ProfitPanda worksFind your way around DiscordPrepare an exchange accountYour first offer: start hereUsing the OddsMatcherRecord your first betTracking and performanceUnderstanding your performance
Help and referenceWelcome to ProfitPandaBetting glossarySupport and safer gamblingFrequently asked questions
Value betting·2 min read

Reading a value alert

Here's what to look for on a value card and what to check before placing a bet.

What's on the card?

  • Event and time: the match and when it starts.
  • Market and selection: exactly what the bet is on, such as over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes.
  • Bookie and odds: where the price was found. Check it in your own betslip.
  • Fair price: the estimated price used for comparison.
  • Estimated edge: the value suggested by that comparison. It isn't the chance of winning.

An example

Say a card shows Team A at 2.10, with estimated fair odds of 2.00. That assumes a 50% chance and gives +5% EV before costs.

A £10 bet makes £11 profit if it wins, or loses £10. The 50p expected average isn't what you get paid on that one bet.

Before you bet

  1. Find the exact match at the named bookie.
  2. Check the selection, line, market, settlement period and start time.
  3. Check your available odds and the stake the bookie will accept.
  4. Stay within your budget, including other bets on the same match.
  5. Check the confirmation and log the actual odds and stake.

If the odds have dropped to 1.90, the old +5% edge no longer applies. With the same 50% estimate, it would be −5%. Skip it until it's been checked again. Don't switch to a different line just because the odds look similar.

It's fine to skip

Skip if the price has gone, the market doesn't match, the event has started, the stake is too much or you don't understand the estimate. You don't need to take every alert.

After the bet

Save the confirmation and log it if tracking is available. When it settles, check the result and keep losses and voids in your history. Value bets normally have no lay covering them, so you can lose the full stake.

Next: Variance and losing runs and Tracking and performance.