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Value betting·2 min read

Probability and price

The most likely winner isn't always the best bet. You also need a price that pays enough for the risk.

Two examples

Estimated chanceAvailable oddsEV per £1
80%1.100.80 × 1.10 − 1 = −12p
25%4.400.25 × 4.40 − 1 = +10p

With those estimates, the first bet wins more often but is poor value. The second loses more often but is better value. These are example probabilities, not tips for a real match.

What chance do you need?

Divide 1 by the decimal odds. At 4.40, you need a chance above about 22.73% for positive EV before fees.

A likely winner can still lose

An 80% chance leaves a 20% chance of losing. A 25% chance doesn't mean you'll win exactly once every four bets. Results can come in runs, and bets on the same match can all depend on one thing happening.

The edge on an alert tells you about the price, not whether the team will win today.

Next: Variance and losing runs.